Texas is in the middle of a major debate about vouchers, school choice, and the future of public education. Yet the state agency responsible for tracking student movement—the Texas Education Agency—does not collect the most basic information needed to evaluate the impact of those policies. The result is a system that can tell us where students go when they leave public schools, but cannot tell us where they came from, why they returned, or how they perform once they do.
In a state that prides itself on data‑driven accountability, these omissions are not just inconvenient—they undermine the ability of lawmakers, researchers, and the public to understand what is actually happening to Texas students.
1. Texas Tracks Exits, Not Entrances
TEA’s data system is built around leaver codes, which districts report for students in grades 7–12 who leave the public system. These codes include:
- 60 — Homeschool
- 81 — Texas private school
- 82 — Out‑of‑state school
- 21 — Transfer to another Texas district
- 24 — Enrolled in college
These codes allow the state to track where students go when they leave public schools.
But TEA does not track the reverse.
There is no field in PEIMS for:
- “Previously homeschooled”
- “Previously in private school”
- “Previously out of state”
- “Previously in a non‑public setting of any kind”
This means Texas cannot answer the most basic questions:
- How many students enter public schools from homeschooling?
- How many enter from private schools?
- How do these students perform academically compared to peers?
- Are voucher‑eligible students returning to public schools after struggling elsewhere?
The state simply does not know.
2. Texas Does Not Track PK–6 Withdrawals at All
Leaver codes only apply to grades 7–12. For PK–6:
- No withdrawal codes exist.
- No statewide tracking exists.
- No mechanism exists to know how many young children leave for homeschool or private school.
This is why the Texas Home School Coalition had to build its own dataset using:
- TEA’s 7–12 data (real)
- PK–6 data from 25 districts (real but limited)
- Statewide extrapolation (estimated)
The result—“50,000 homeschool withdrawals per year”—is directionally plausible but not an official TEA statistic. Texas could produce this number itself, but it chooses not to.
3. Texas Does Not Track Private School Enrollment
Texas does not regulate private schools and does not require them to report:
- Enrollment
- Demographics
- Transfers
- Outcomes
- Accreditation status
The only statewide private‑school enrollment number comes from the federal NCES Private School Universe Survey, last updated in 2021.
This means Texas cannot answer:
- How many students are in private schools today?
- Are private schools growing faster than public schools?
- Are voucher‑eligible private schools expanding?
- How many voucher‑eligible students are already in private schools?
The state is legislating in the dark.
4. Texas Cannot Measure Public ↔ Private ↔ Homeschool Churn
Because TEA tracks only exits (grades 7–12) and not entrances, Texas cannot measure:
- Net movement between sectors
- Whether homeschooling is temporary or permanent
- Whether private school students return to public schools at higher rates
- Whether voucher programs increase churn
- Whether students who return to public schools after homeschooling or private schooling perform differently
This is a major blind spot for any state considering vouchers.
5. Texas Cannot Evaluate the Impact of School Choice on Student Outcomes
Without entrance data, Texas cannot:
- Compare academic performance of students who enter from private or homeschool settings
- Track long‑term outcomes for students who switch sectors
- Evaluate whether voucher‑funded students perform better or worse
- Identify whether certain groups of students are more likely to return to public schools
The state’s accountability system—A–F ratings, STAAR, graduation rates—simply cannot incorporate students whose prior schooling is unknown.
6. Texas Cannot Validate Claims About Homeschooling Growth
Because TEA does not track:
- PK–6 withdrawals
- Homeschool enrollment
- Homeschool re‑entry
- Homeschool outcomes
…the state cannot confirm or refute:
- Claims of 50,000 annual homeschool withdrawals
- Claims that homeschooling has doubled or tripled
- Claims that homeschooling is replacing private schooling
- Claims that homeschooling is temporary for many families
Texas has no official numbers.
7. Texas Cannot Evaluate Voucher Costs Accurately
Without knowing:
- How many private school students would apply
- How many homeschoolers would apply
- How many students would switch sectors
- How many would return to public schools
…the state cannot estimate:
- The true cost of a voucher program
- The long‑term fiscal impact on public schools
- The number of new students the state would be subsidizing
This is why fiscal notes for voucher bills vary wildly and are often unreliable.
8. Texas Cannot Track Students Who Leave the State
Leaver code 82 (“out of state”) is reported, but:
- No follow‑up exists
- No verification exists
- No mechanism exists to confirm whether the student actually enrolled elsewhere
This creates opportunities for misclassification and data gaps.
What Texas Should Do: A Modern Data System for a Modern Education Landscape
1. Add a “Prior School Type” field to PEIMS
Every new student enrollment record should include:
- Public school (Texas)
- Public school (out of state)
- Private school
- Homeschool
- International school
- Other
This single change would transform Texas’s ability to evaluate student mobility and outcomes.
2. Require PK–6 withdrawal reporting
A simple, minimal reporting requirement mirroring 7–12 leaver codes would close the largest data gap in the system.
3. Require private schools receiving public funds to report enrollment
If a school accepts vouchers, it should report:
- Enrollment
- Demographics
- Transfers in/out
- Basic outcome measures
This is standard in other voucher states.
4. Track re‑entry from homeschooling and private schools
A simple checkbox on enrollment forms would allow Texas to measure:
- How many students return
- How long they were away
- How they perform academically
5. Publish annual statewide churn counts
TEA already has the leaver data for 7-12 grades. It simply does not publish it.
Once #1, #2, and #4 are implemented, TEA could publish an even more complete picture of the churn data.
6. Modernize TEA’s data architecture
Texas needs a system designed for:
- Mobility
- Choice
- Cross‑sector movement
- Longitudinal tracking
The current system was built for a world where nearly all students attended public schools continuously. That world no longer exists.
Why This Matters
Texas is making major policy decisions on, not just vouchers but also accountability reforms and funding formulas, without the data needed to evaluate their impact. The state cannot answer basic questions about student movement, outcomes, or costs.
A modern education system requires modern data. Until Texas updates TEA’s reporting requirements, lawmakers will continue to legislate blindfolded, and families will continue to make decisions without clear information.